The Jewish Vote May Return
As the governor of New Jersey, it's not surprising that Phil Murphy has made numerous trips to Israel in the last decade. New Jersey's demographics have been changing, with the predominantly ultra-Orthodox city of Lakewood growing rapidly. The high birth rates in Lakewood are comparable to those in Modi'in Illit, Israel, and there are now an estimated 120,000 ultra-Orthodox Jews living in New Jersey, the majority of whom are in Lakewood. Along with the state of New York, New Jersey has become a hub for Orthodox Jews in America.
Lakewood does not resemble Bnei Brak in many ways. Unlike the crowded, bustling streets of Bnei Brak, Lakewood is a typical American suburb with low-rise houses intended for single families. As the population of ultra-Orthodox Jews in Lakewood grows, there is a lack of space, and they are looking to buy properties in nearby towns. However, these towns have been using various tactics to prevent the ultra-Orthodox from moving in, such as obstructing the construction of synagogues. However, the pressure from the state to not discriminate against religious minorities has forced these towns to allow an ultra-Orthodox presence.
The defining characteristic of an ultra-Orthodox population is its rapid growth. With the current rate of reproduction, it is estimated that half a million Haredim could live in New Jersey within the next 40 years. This growth is driven both by natural increase and immigration, as New Jersey is still a more affordable option compared to New York for many ultra-Orthodox Jews. If Lakewood and its surrounding areas can accommodate this growth, the ultra-Orthodox population in New Jersey is likely to continue to expand.
In the past, Jewish voters were seen as a key factor in determining support for Israel. A president who alienated Israel risked losing support from the Jewish community. However, today it is not clear that Israel is still a major concern for many Jews. For many, other issues such as abortion, black rights, and the removal of Donald Trump from office are more important. It is unlikely that a Jewish Democrat would vote for a Republican simply because the Democratic candidate is less supportive of Israel than they would like. Furthermore, Jews are concentrated in coastal states where the Democratic victory is almost guaranteed. In the past, Florida was a key swing state with a large Jewish population who supported Israel. Today Florida is no longer a swing state and is likely to vote for the Republicans.
However, it is not surprising that New Jersey's two senators, Bob Menendez and Corey Booker, are among the most pro-Israeli Democrats in the Senate. Their support for Israel is likely influenced by the significant ultra-Orthodox population in New Jersey, and it's no wonder that the governor of New Jersey has visited Israel on numerous occasions. However, while Jewish voters in New Jersey can still influence primary elections and races for the House of Representatives, the state as a whole is heavily Democratic. President Trump was defeated in New Jersey by large margins in both 2016 and 2020, and it will likely be many years before the natural growth of the ultra-Orthodox population poses a threat to Democratic control in the state.
Currently, the Jewish vote in America has lost much of its influence, with many Jews losing interest in Israel and the relatively few who are still interested having limited impact. However, Jewish money still plays a role in American politics, as evidenced by AIPAC's recent interference in the Democratic primaries. While this can result in support for pro-Israeli policies, it also has its downsides, as it raises questions about foreign influence in American politics.
In the future, if the ultra-Orthodox population continues to grow and concentrate in New Jersey, their votes could become a significant factor in the state. If they are scattered throughout the country, some may end up in swing states, where their votes could be influential. Overall, the birth rate in America is declining and is well below the replacement level, while the birth rate among Orthodox Jews remains high and stable. It's possible that in 30-40 years, the Jewish vote will become a significant factor in American politics once again.