Turkey today, Israel in the future?
Turkey today is a country divided between a democratically elected religious government that is supported by the masses, and religious and secular elites who oppose it. This is not unlike Israel in the future, when demographics may lead to the majority democratically voting against secular freedoms. In a democracy, there is a fundamental contradiction between the idea of majority rule and the secular values of liberty and freedom.
In a situation where the democratic majority does not support liberal values, there are two legitimate forms of government. On the one hand, there is the government chosen by the will of the people and validated by election officials. On the other hand, there is the party responsible for enforcing secular democratic values, such as the supreme court and the army in the Turkish tradition. In Israel, these two sides have not yet come into direct conflict. However, there is a high likelihood that this will happen in the future.
The elites are expected to have control over the judicial system, bureaucracy, and the military, but not the ballot box. The religious and secular societies in Israel are constantly changing, and it is likely that the religious people of tomorrow will have severe conflicts with the seculars in the country. Both sides will be tempted to suppress freedoms and trample on democracy in order to maintain their rule. The possibility of a military coup in response to these actions cannot be ruled out.
However, there are several factors that distinguish the Israeli society from the Turkish and provide a reasonable chance for a better future for Israel.
Vulnerability is strength
Israel's vulnerability is actually a source of strength. As a small country, Israel relies on the support of the West to survive and needs its best minds to continue to thrive economically and defend itself from existential threats. Internal conflict that is resolved through force rather than peaceful means and agreement will undermine society's ability to mobilize against external enemies. In a region with hostile neighbors, it would be foolish for the residents of a narrow strip of land on the Mediterranean to turn on each other and give their enemies ammunition.
It is difficult to imagine the US and the Western world supporting a religious state that does not respect civil rights. While they may currently tolerate Turkey for strategic reasons, it is unlikely that they would do the same for Israel. The Jewish mind is one of Israel's greatest strategic assets, and if primitive fanaticism were to prevail, it would likely lead to a mass migration of that mind to other regions. In order to maintain its strength and continue to thrive, Israel must prioritize civil rights and respect for democracy.
Norms of nonviolence
The murder of Yitzhak Rabin marked the end of innocence for Israeli society. It showed that Jews were capable of killing other Jews over political differences. But twenty years have passed since then and there have been no similar incidents. Similarly, the murder of Emil Grinzweig in 1983 and the Altalana massacre 70 years ago have not been repeated. Even the traumatic disengagement from Gaza in 2005 passed without any casualties. This shows that Israeli society has strong norms of non-violence on political grounds.
In contrast, the situation in Turkey is disturbing. The lynching of soldiers in the streets during the failed coup attempt was not something one could have expected to see in 2016, in a NATO member country. While it is difficult to predict the future, I believe that Israeli society will not produce such spectacles.
Religious split
Jerusalem could have been fully controlled by ultra-Orthodox forces a long time ago, but the divisions within the religious community have prevented this from happening. In fact, religious factions may be more likely to fight each other with hatred than they are to fight the secular enemy. For example, the confrontation over the Ponovizh yeshiva showed that even the Litvak ultra-Orthodox can be divided. A religious majority would be meaningless if its members hated each other so much that they preferred to align with secular forces.
However, the Turkish example shows that even a split within the religious ranks does not guarantee the survival of secularism. The resentment of the Islamist Gulen faction was not enough to bring about the downfall of Erdogan. This highlights the need for a strong and united front among secular forces in order to defend their values and prevent the erosion of democratic institutions.
No religious domination ideology
It is unclear what religious ideology will guide the people of Israel in the future. It is certain that it will not be the same as the contemporary religious view, just as it is not the same as the religious thinking of the past. For example, the historic Mizrahi movement supported the Uganda plan, while the historic Chabad movement was fanatically anti-Zionist. These two movements now both support the vision of a non-divided Land of Israel.
Currently, there is no significant religious ideology that advocates for the control of religion over the state. The ultra-Orthodox still shy away from such an idea due to their belief that it is not their historical responsibility until the Messiah comes. The national ultra-Orthodox reject this idea because of their emphasis on national unity and the need to include all parts of society. The bourgeois religious have no interest in this because of their bourgeoisie. It is impossible to say with certainty that such an ideology will not emerge, and the behavior of some radical religious factions is not encouraging. However, these factions are small and their immediate environment also disapproves of many of their actions.
Future of cantons
There is a clear geographical division between religious and secular areas in Israel. For example, some areas allow pride parades to march without interruption, while in other areas the marchers face danger. In some places, businesses are allowed to open on Shabbat, while in others they are prohibited. The term "Tel Aviv State" accurately describes this division, although there are also secular enclaves in other parts of the country, due in large part to immigration from Russia.
The most logical solution to religious tensions in the future is the division of the country into autonomous enclaves based on religious beliefs. The state would remain united, but in matters of religion and state, the laws of each canton would be valid. This solution would become increasingly important as demographic polarization increases. Advancing this solution politically today would help to prevent the emergence of a Turkish-style situation in the future.